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Key economic reports due out in the week ahead include global PMIs, the first Q1 GDP reading, the durable goods orders report, and new home sales. At the very end of the week, the reading of core PCE inflation will be of high interest to Federal Reserve watchers, especially with FOMC members in a blackout period ahead of the May meeting. BNP Paribas Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna thinks positive supply shocks should continue to provide a tailwind to economic activity without boosting inflationary pressures, although a July rate move is seen as unlikely if inflation pressures prove more persistent. At the time of publication, futures trading implies a 42% probability of a rate cut at or before the July meeting.
In corporate earnings, heavyweights Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Visa (V), Merck (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) are all lined up to report. Some of the world’s largest energy firms will also step up, with Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) on the earnings calendar. The defense industry is also well represented, with updates expected from Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX (RTX). Digging into the earnings flood, Seeking Alpha analyst Amrita Roy has a breakdown of the software sector, and why AI and vendor consolidation are key themes to watch. Meanwhile, Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller pointed out that the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average is falling, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors.
Earnings spotlight: Monday, April 22 – Verizon (VZ), Truist (TFC), and Albertsons Companies (ACI). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, April 23 – Visa (V), Tesla (TSLA), PepsiCo (PEP), Texas Instruments (TXN), Philip Morris International (PM), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mattel (MAT), and General Motors (GM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, April 24 – Meta Platforms (META), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Chipotle (CMG), General Dynamics (GD), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Ford Motor (F). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Thursday, April 25 – Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Merck (MRK), Caterpillar (CAT), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), and Altria Group (MO). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Friday, April 26 – TotalEnergies (TTE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL). See the full earnings calendar.
Volatility watch: Options trading volume is elevated on Snap (NYSE:SNAP) and Summit Therapeutics (SMMT). Short interest moved even higher over the last week on B. Riley Financial (RILY) and Beyond Meat (BYND). The most overbought stocks per their 14-day relative strength index include Macatawa Bank (MCBC), Coupang (CPNG), and Alpine Immune (ALPN). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include Sunoco (SUN), Capri Holdings (NYSE:CPRI), and Perion (PERI). Traders will also be on high alert when the FTC holds a closed-door meeting on April 22. The Tapestry (NYSE:TPR)-Capri Holdings (CPRI) deal is at risk of being blocked.
IPO watch: Companies expected to launch their IPOs in the week ahead include mF International (MFI), YY Group Holding (YYGH), Rubrik (RBRK), Marex Group, and Loar Holdings (LOAR). The IPO quiet periods end on Boundless Bio (BOLD), U-BX Technology (UBXG), and Alta Global Group (MMA) to free up analysts to post ratings.
Dividend watch: Companies forecast to increase their quarterly dividend payouts include Parker-Hannifin (PH) to $1.65 from $1.48, Lithia Motors (LAD) to $0.55 from $0.50, Nasdaq (NDAQ) to $0.24 from $0.22, Paychex (PAYX) to $0.97 from $0.89, and RTX Corp. (RTX) to $0.63 from $0.59. See dividend stock picks from Seeking Alpha analysts.
Tesla earnings preview: Tesla (TSLA) will report Q1 earnings on April 23. The electric vehicle maker has already announced that it delivered 386,810 vehicles and produced 433,371 vehicles during the quarter. The deliveries tally missed the consensus estimate that had already been slashed significantly. Model 3/Y production was 412,376 units in Q1 vs. the consensus expectation for 439,194 units. By comparison, Tesla delivered a total of 484,507 vehicles in Q4 and 422,875 a year ago in Q1. While Tesla is expected to report revenue of $22.5B and EPS of $0.50 with the Q1 report, the biggest focus may be on the automotive gross margin line. The company heads into earnings day with a lot of balls in the air. Elon Musk is expected to announce a $2B to $3B investment in India for a new plant when he visits New Delhi next week, update on China demand expectations, and outline the rationale behind the broad job cuts at the company. On the conference call, some of the key topics will be AI initiatives, margin expectations, FSD take rates, as well as what the product roadmap looks like, including if the mass-market Model 2 is still part of the master plan. While Elon Musk is likely to talk up the potential of the robotaxi business, Morgan Stanley warned investors to keep their hopes down. “The event should offer some important clues as to how Tesla approaches autonomy (gen AI, non-rules based) and why the company is seemingly rapidly stockpiling its computational horsepower. However, while we are prepared to see evidence of improved system efficacy, we ultimately believe the path to commercialization at scale for driverless cars is much further out than the market expects,” warned analyst Adam Jonas. Options trading on Tesla implies a 10% share price swing after the report drops. Tesla fell 12% immediately after its Q4 earnings report. EV stocks with the tightest trading correlation to Tesla after earnings are Faraday Future Intelligent (FFIE) and NIO (NIO).
Investor events: The TotalEnergies (TTE) board is expected to decide if a resolution to split the roles of CEO and chairman will be included at the annual general meeting in May. A group of investors has said the move could accelerate the company’s shift away from fossil fuels. The crypto world will have its eyes on the two-day World Blockchain Summit in Dubai. The Stripe Sessions Conference will include talks by Stripe (STRIP) CEO Patrick Collison, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, Instacart (CART) CEO Fidji Simo, and Urban Outfitters (URBN) CTO David Hayne. Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) will hold its China Capital Markets Day in Beijing. Management from the regional brands will showcase their respective product strategies for China, followed by deep dives highlighting technologies and partnerships. The World Energy Congress in Rotterdam during the week will include talks by Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) CEO Amin Nasser and TotalEnergies (TTE) CEO Patrick Pouyanne.
Eyes on China auto: The Beijing Auto Show next week will be closely watched, with many of the Chinese electric vehicle players looking to make a splash. NIO (NIO) will showcase its entire 2024 model lineup, including the debuts of the 2024 ET5 and 2024 ES7. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) will also promote the company’s recently unveiled three new models from the premium Fang Cheng Bao brand. Joint venture Changan Mazda plans to unveil a new electrified mid-size sedan, while BMW Group (BMWW) is bringing the new i4 and Mini Aceman to the show, and Geely Automobile (OTCPK:GELYF) will introduce a flagship SUV for the Galaxy lineup. Zeekr and Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGAF) are also looking to create buzz in Beijing for their models. U.S. automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will have a presence at the show. GM’s (GM) Cadillac Optiq will be shown off in China for the first time. Ahead of the show, XPeng’s (XPEV) expanded partnership with Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) has attracted considerable attention, and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) is reported to have seen stronger buyer interest than anticipated for its debut EV model. Outside of the auto industry, Samsung Electronics (OTCPK:SSNLF) is making its first appearance ever at the Beijing Auto Show. The South Korean electronics giant plans to show off its cutting-edge memory solutions designed for the future of automobiles.
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